Ballon d'Or 2025: Potential winners and predictions

The absence of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo from mainstream prominence has ushered in a new dawn of intrigue during awards season.

The two greats monopolised all the shiny individual pots and pans there were to win for over a decade, but their respective ventures to MLS and Saudi Arabia mean the pair are unlikely to be considered for the sport's most lucrative awards at the back end of their careers.

A tight 2024 Ballon d'Or race was expected to conclude with Vinicius Junior becoming the first Brazilian to claim the golden ball since Kaka in 2007, but voters instead opted for the steely presence at the base of Manchester City and Spain's midfield. Rodri, however, will not have the chance to defend his crown in 2025 thanks to an anterior cruciate ligament tear sustained in September.

It's almost certain another new Ballon d'Or victor will emerge this year and the absence of significant international football means the award will almost exclusively focus on club form during the 2024/25 season.

With that in mind, let's dive into our early predictions for the 2025 Ballon d'Or.

Predictions for the 2025 Ballon d'Or

15. Julian Alvarez

Julian Alvarez has proven a transformative figure for Atletico Madrid since his summer switch from Manchester City and has forged an excellent partnership with Antoine Griezmann in the Spanish capital.

Goals have been remarkably regular for the Argentine this season, with his consistent sharpshooting elevating Atletico in La Liga. While they're far from favourites for this year's crown, they could still sneak top spot.

Alvarez's Ballon d'Or candidacy took a sizeable hit in the Champions League last 16, however, as his shootout spot kick was disallowed by VAR in defeat to rivals Real Madrid.

14. Michael Olise

Michael Olise's time at Crystal Palace was dogged by injuries but he showed just how special a footballer he is during his final few months in south London and Bayern Munich believe they've copped an absolute steal for his services at £50.8m.

The nonchalant Frenchman certainly boasts the talent and aesthetics to woo voters, with the start he's made to his Bundesliga career suggesting he's a player capable of competing for the sport's most prestigious individual honour.

He's quickly established himself as part of a behemoth that could end 2024/25 with multiple pieces of silverware.

13. Erling Haaland

Some will claim Erling Haaland should have won the 2023 award over Messi off the back of the Norwegian's record-breaking scoring season as his Man City team won the treble.

Messi, though, did cement his legacy and status as the greatest to ever do it by inspiring Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar. It was no robbery.

Haaland may not exactly be the man for aesthetics, but the numbers continue to speak for themselves. He's still delivering in the final third despite the Cityzens' on-field woes, even if claiming the Ballon d'Or appears nigh-on impossible this year.

12. Lautaro Martinez

Lautaro Martinez has long been underappreciated due to the streaky nature of his performances but the Inter forward has found immense consistency over the past few years.

The Argentine helped guide the Nerazzurri to Serie A last season and could manage the same this season, while also shining at the 2024 Copa America as he scored the winning goal in the final and finished tournament top scorer.

Martinez has been a reliable figure in Inter's forward unit once again this term and while he lacks the glamour of his Ballon d'Or competitors, he could still finish the season with an array of trophies.

11. Jamal Musiala

Few players are more enjoyable to watch than Jamal Musiala. While that is not enough to claim the Ballon d'Or in itself, it certainly does the Bayern Munich star's reputation no harm.

The fleet-footed German continues to terrorise Bundesliga defences and appears set to secure another title with Die Roten this season, silverware that could be added to in the Champions League.

A relentless stream of goals and assists makes him a candidate for the world's greatest individual honour if Bayern can secure a few trophies down the stretch.

10. Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham finished on the podium in 2024, but he's unlikely to better that result this year. The Englishman's third-place finish came by virtue of the prolific start he made to his Real Madrid career.

A change in function means Bellingham has not quite managed to replicate the output of his debut campaign this term, but he remains a super gifted midfielder who has a knack of producing in the biggest spots. A clutch moment or two could thrust the Madrid star into the upper echelons once more.

9. Robert Lewandowski

It looked as if Robert Lewandowski had ventured beyond his twilight for much of 2023/24, but the arrival of Flick, who coached the Pole at Bayern, has rejuvenated the veteran forward.

The striker will perpetually feast in front of goal but Lewandowski has contributed much more than goals to a dazzling Barca team during Flick's tenure. If the Catalonians continue on their current trajectory and Lewandowski remains relentless on the output front, the 36-year-old could re-emerge as a Ballon d'Or contender.

8. Pedri

The former Kopa Trophy victor could be higher on this list, but an injury setback is seemingly never too far away.

Pedri, nonetheless, has rediscovered his most majestic form in Barcelona colours, shining in Flick's double pivot. A lack of size is made up by dogged industry and an unrivalled mastery of the ball.

Let's hope and pray the Spaniard stays injury-free between now and the campaign's nearing conclusion.

7. Kylian Mbappe

Imagine telling someone after the 2018 World Cup that the young Frenchman who tore it up in Russia for a summer would not yet have a Ballon d'Or to his name by 2024.

"Blasphemy!" you would've cried.

Given his status among the world's best for half a decade, Kylian Mbappe's single podium finish is a major surprise. In truth, he hasn't really come close to getting his hands on the award.

However, a move to perennial Champions League victors Real Madrid will help his cause, and he will be in the running should Los Blancos win Europe's top prize for a 16th time this season.

6. Mohamed Salah

Mohamed Salah has threatened to win the Ballon d'Or on several occasions in the past but Liverpool's inability to produce a truly mammoth trophy haul in a single season has often hampered his bid for the accolade. The same could be true again this season.

Salah has arguably produced the best campaign of his career - battling with his astonishing debut season at Liverpool - and has been the decisive factor in the Reds sitting so far clear at the summit of the Premier League table.

But winning the English top flight may not be enough for the Egyptian, who can no longer lift the Champions League or either domestic cup competition.

5. Harry Kane

Harry Kane certainly isn't shy of individual honours and claimed another at the 2024 ceremony in the form of the Gerd Muller Trophy. He finished tenth in Ballon d'Or voting.

While the Englishman was once again remarkably prolific during his first season at Bayern Munich, his goals, as many as there were, didn't actually count for all too much as Bayern failed to get their hands on any silverware.

However, Kane's trophy curse appears set to end this season with Bayern leading the Bundesliga, and his relentless goalscoring could yet guide the German giants to Champions League glory, too.

4. Ousmane Dembele

It seemed inconceivable at the start of the 2024/25 campaign that Ousmane Dembele could be considered among the leading candidates for the Ballon d'Or. After all, the Frenchman is so often all sizzle and no steak.

But Luis Enrique has unlocked Dembele's full potential at Paris Saint-Germain and the ambipedal winger has dazzled France and Europe with some truly astonishing performances this season.

PSG appear genuine Champions League contenders and have all but wrapped up Ligue 1 already. Should they win both, Dembele would be a shoo-in for the Ballon d'Or given the insane numbers he has produced.

3. Lamine Yamal

It's been said about so many wonderkids before, but there's just no way Lamine Yamal ends his career without a Ballon d'Or to his name.

The teenager claimed the Kopa Trophy in 2024 and finished eighth in voting for the main prize. Yamal is simply defying belief, performing at a level we perhaps didn't believe could be replicated by a teenager after Messi and his flowing locks started his ascent to all-time greatness 20 years ago.

Not even the great Argentine was doing what Yamal is right now.

2. Vinicius Junior

Vinicius Junior really wants to win the Ballon d'Or. That became clear amid the fallout of his second-place finish in 2024.

'I'll do it 10x if I have to. They're not ready," the Brazilian posted on X after Rodri's victory was confirmed.

Vinicius may well be the world's best player and his sheer determination to wrong a supposed robbery could thrust him to glory in 2025. Mbappe's arrival has not yet diminished his status in Madrid and further Champions League success for the Spaniards would aid Vini's standing in pursuit of Ballon d'Or glory next year.

1. Raphinha

Much like former Barcelona winger Dembele, many would have cackled at the prospect of current La Blaugrana forward Raphinha being considered a genuine candidate for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. But here we are.

A player once considered an expensive flop in Catalonia has enjoyed a remarkable renaissance under Flick as he becomes Barca's go-to man for both goals and assists.

He's already been tipped for the Ballon d'Or by his manager and he is currently considered the favourite for the prize. His success depends on Barca's trophy haul come the end of the season.

When is the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

The 68th Ballon d'Or ceremony has been pencilled in for Monday 27 October 2025.

The ceremony will follow a similar format to previous iterations with the doors opening at 18:30 (GMT) before the action kicks off at approximately 20:00.

Where is the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Once again, Paris' Theatre du Chatelet will host the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony.

The iconic theatre, which opened in 1862, has held the lucrative ceremony every year since 2019. Other previous Parisian hosts include the Grande Palais, with the annual ceremony returning to France following FIFA's departure from the Ballon d'Or award in 2015. FIFA Ballon d'Or ceremonies had been held in Zurich, close to FIFA HQ.

Ballon d'Or previous winners

Ballon d'Or winners by country

Messi's eight victories mean Argentina is the most successful Ballon d'Or country, while France, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands have claimed seven awards.

France, perhaps unsurprisingly, has had the most different winners (six) with 19 countries boasting at least one player to get ahold of the prize.

Ballon d'Or winners by position

This is an award that's been dominated by the creators and goal-getters. In Ballon d'Or history, only one goalkeeper (Lev Yashin) and four defenders (Franz Beckenbauer, Matthias Sammer and Fabio Cannavaro) have won the award. A few midfielders, even a couple of box-to-boxers have triumphed, but the vast majority of winners have been forwards.

What other prizes will be awarded at the Ballon d'Or ceremony?

The Ballon d'Or ceremony doesn't merely unofficially crown the best male footballer in the world, but the newly-established Ballon d'Or Feminin means the superstars of women's football are celebrated, too. Norwegian striker Ada Hegerberg became the first to win the award in 2018, with a pair of Spaniards - Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmati - winning two times each since.

The Kopa Trophy is handed out to the best Under-21 footballer in the world, while the Yashin Trophy rewards the world's best goalkeeper. Emiliano Martinez became a back-to-back winner in 2024.

The Gerd Muller Trophy celebrates the most proficient goalscorer and the fourth Socrates Award will be presented at the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony. This prize focuses on off-field work, with Sadio Mane, Vinicius Junior and Jenni Hermoso the previous winners.

There's an odd prize for men and women's Club of the Year as well as two Johan Cruyff trophies which are presented to the leading managers in both spheres.

How Ballon d'Or voting works

The Ballon d'Or winner is not decided by players and managers but by journalists from FIFA's top 100 ranked nations. Each nation has one representative who must list their top ten from the 30 nominees.

Each position is worth a certain number of points with first place garnering 15 and tenth just one. Here's the full breakdown:

• First: 15 points
• Second: 12 points
• Third: 10 points
• Fourth: 8 points
• Fifth: 7 points
• Sixth: 5 points
• Seventh: 4 points
• Eighth: 3 points
• Ninth: 2 points
• Tenth: 1 point

The award is handed out to the player who earns the most points. If there's an unlikely tie at the top, the player with the most first-place votes will win the Ballon d'Or.

History of the Ballon d'Or

French magazine France Football has presented the Ballon d'Or to the world's best player since 1956. England's Stanley Matthews was the first winner.

For a chunk of its history, only players from Europe were considered for the award which means the likes of Pele and Diego Maradona ended their respective careers without Ballons d'Or to their names. It wasn't until 2007 that the award went global and took into account the performances of players from all over the world, not just Europe.

There was a brief partnership with FIFA between 2010 and 2015 which saw France Football's Ballon d'Or merge with FIFA's World Player of the Year award, but FIFA went their own way and created The Best in 2016.

Journalists from around the world have, for the most part, been solely responsible for deciding the Ballon d'Or victor, but there was a time between 2007 and 2016 when coaches and national team captains also had a say.

The ceremony was cancelled for the very first time in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and since 2022 the award has been handed out to the best performing player from the previous season as opposed to calendar year.

READ MORE ON THE 2024 BALLON D'OR WINNERS