Ballon d'Or 2025: Potential winners and predictions

The absence of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo from mainstream prominence has ushered in a new dawn of intrigue during awards season.

The two greats monopolised all the shiny individual pots and pans there were to win for over a decade, but their respective ventures to MLS and Saudi Arabia mean the pair are unlikely to be considered for the sport's most lucrative awards at the back end of their careers.

A tight 2024 Ballon d'Or race was expected to conclude with Vinicius Junior becoming the first Brazilian to claim the golden ball since Kaka in 2007, but voters instead opted for the steely presence at the base of Manchester City and Spain's midfield. Rodri, however, will not have the chance to defend his crown in 2025 thanks to an anterior cruciate ligament tear sustained in September.

There's a great possibility another new Ballon d'Or victor will emerge next year and the absence of significant international football means the award will almost exclusively focus on club form during the 2024/25 season.

With that in mind, let's dive into our way too early prediction for the 2025 Ballon d'Or.

Predictions for the 2025 Ballon d'Or

10. Michael Olise

Michael Olise's time at Crystal Palace was dogged by injuries but he showed just how special a footballer he is during his final few months in south London and Bayern Munich believe they've copped an absolute steal for his services at £50.8m.

The nonchalant Frenchman certainly boasts the talent and aesthetics to woo voters, with the start he's made to his Bundesliga career suggesting he's a player capable of competing for the sport's most prestigious individual honour.

He's quickly established himself as part of a behemoth that could end 2024/25 with multiple pieces of silverware.

9. Pedri

The former Kopa Trophy victor could be higher on this list, but an injury setback is seemingly never too far away.

Pedri, nonetheless, has rediscovered his most majestic form in Barcelona colours, shining in Hansi Flick's double pivot. A lack of size is made up by dogged industry and an unrivalled mastery of the ball.

Let's hope and pray the Spaniard stays injury-free.

8. Jude Bellingham

Jude Bellingham finished on the podium in 2024, but he's unlikely to better that result next year. The Englishman's third-place finish came by virtue of the prolific start he made to his Real Madrid career.

A change in function means Bellingham is not going to put up huge numbers in 2024/25, but he remains a super gifted midfielder who has a knack of producing in the biggest spots. A clutch moment or two could thrust the Madrid star into the top ten again.

7. Harry Kane

Harry Kane certainly isn't shy of individual honours and claimed another at the 2024 ceremony in the form of the Gerd Muller Trophy. He finished tenth in Ballon d'Or voting.

While the Englishman was once again remarkably prolific during his first season at Bayern Munich, his goals, as many as there were, didn't actually count for all too much as Bayern failed to get their hands on any silverware.

However, if Kane continues to find the back of the net at an unrelenting rate and normality is resumed with Bayern atop the Bundesliga table next May, Kane should better his Ballon d'Or standing in 2025.

6. Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka has been remarkably consistent since breaking into Arsenal's first team and there's no doubting who the Gunners' main man is.

The 23-year-old is Mikel Arteta's superstar down the right flank. He consistently delivers for club and country on the biggest occasions and has emerged as an inevitability on the output front in recent times.

This is one of the world's best wingers and his stock will be at an all-time high if he inspires Arsenal to Premier League or even Champions League glory in 2025.

5. Robert Lewandowski

It looked as if Robert Lewandowski had ventured beyond his twilight for much of 2023/24, but the arrival of Flick, who coached the Pole at Bayern, has rejuvenated the veteran forward.

The striker will perpetually feast in front of goal but Lewandowski has contributed much more than goals to a dazzling Barca team at the start of Flick's tenure. If the Catalonians continue on their current trajectory and Lewandowski remains relentless on the output front, the 36-year-old could re-emerge as a Ballon d'Or contender.

4. Kylian Mbappe

Imagine telling someone after the 2018 World Cup that the young Frenchman who tore it up in Russia for a summer would not yet have a Ballon d'Or to his name by 2024.

"Blasphemy!" you would've cried.

Given his status among the world's best for half a decade, Kylian Mbappe's single podium finish is a major surprise. In truth, he hasn't really come close to getting his hands on the award.

However, a move to perennial Champions League victors Real Madrid will help his cause - even if he's yet to cement himself as Los Blancos' main man.

3. Erling Haaland

Some will claim Erling Haaland should have won the 2023 award over Messi off the back of the Norwegian's record-breaking scoring season as his Manchester City team won the treble.

Messi, though, did cement his legacy and status as the greatest to ever do it by inspiring Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar. It was no robbery.

Haaland may not exactly be the man for aesthetics, but the numbers will continue to speak for themselves. As long as he's healthy, Haaland will be scoring an obscene amount of goals and the absence of international tournaments next summer will help his cause.

2. Lamine Yamal

It's been said about so many wonderkids before, but there's just no way Lamine Yamal ends his career without a Ballon d'Or to his name.

The teenager claimed the Kopa Trophy in 2024 and finished eighth in voting for the main prize. Yamal is simply defying belief, performing at a level we perhaps didn't believe could be replicated by a teenager after Messi and his flowing locks started his ascent to all-time greatness 20 years ago.

Not even the great Argentine was doing what Yamal is right now.

1. Vinicius Junior

Vinicius Junior really wants to win the Ballon d'Or. That became clear amid the fallout of his second-place finish in 2024.

'I'll do it 10x if I have to. They're not ready," the Brazilian posted on X after Rodri's victory was confirmed.

Vinicius may well be the world's best player and his sheer determination to wrong a supposed robbery could thrust him to glory in 2025. Mbappe's arrival has not yet diminished his status in Madrid and further Champions League success for the Spaniards would aid Vini's standing in pursuit of Ballon d'Or glory next year.

When is the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

The 68th Ballon d'Or ceremony has been pencilled in for Monday 27 October 2025.

The ceremony will follow a similar format to previous iterations with the doors opening at 18:30 (GMT) before the action kicks off at approximately 20:00.

Where is the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Once again, Paris' Theatre du Chatelet will host the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony.

The iconic theatre, which opened in 1862, has held the lucrative ceremony every year since 2019. Other previous Parisian hosts include the Grande Palais, with the annual ceremony returning to France following FIFA's departure from the Ballon d'Or award in 2015. FIFA Ballon d'Or ceremonies had been held in Zurich, close to FIFA HQ.

Ballon d'Or previous winners

Ballon d'Or winners by country

Messi's eight victories mean Argentina is the most successful Ballon d'Or country, while France, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands have claimed seven awards.

France, perhaps unsurprisingly, has had the most different winners (six) with 19 countries boasting at least one player to get ahold of the prize.

Ballon d'Or winners by position

This is an award that's been dominated by the creators and goal-getters. In Ballon d'Or history, only one goalkeeper (Lev Yashin) and four defenders (Franz Beckenbauer, Matthias Sammer and Fabio Cannavaro) have won the award. A few midfielders, even a couple of box-to-boxers have triumphed, but the vast majority of winners have been forwards.

What other prizes will be awarded at the Ballon d'Or ceremony?

The Ballon d'Or ceremony doesn't merely unofficially crown the best male footballer in the world, but the newly-established Ballon d'Or Feminin means the superstars of women's football are celebrated, too. Norwegian striker Ada Hegerberg became the first to win the award in 2018, with a pair of Spaniards - Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmati - winning two times each since.

The Kopa Trophy is handed out to the best Under-21 footballer in the world, while the Yashin Trophy rewards the world's best goalkeeper. Emiliano Martinez became a back-to-back winner in 2024.

The Gerd Muller Trophy celebrates the most proficient goalscorer and the fourth Socrates Award will be presented at the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony. This prize focuses on off-field work, with Sadio Mane, Vinicius Junior and Jenni Hermoso the previous winners.

There's an odd prize for men and women's Club of the Year as well as two Johan Cruyff trophies which are presented to the leading managers in both spheres.

How Ballon d'Or voting works

The Ballon d'Or winner is not decided by players and managers but by journalists from FIFA's top 100 ranked nations. Each nation has one representative who must list their top ten from the 30 nominees.

Each position is worth a certain number of points with first place garnering 15 and tenth just one. Here's the full breakdown:

• First: 15 points
• Second: 12 points
• Third: 10 points
• Fourth: 8 points
• Fifth: 7 points
• Sixth: 5 points
• Seventh: 4 points
• Eighth: 3 points
• Ninth: 2 points
• Tenth: 1 point

The award is handed out to the player who earns the most points. If there's an unlikely tie at the top, the player with the most first-place votes will win the Ballon d'Or.

History of the Ballon d'Or

French magazine France Football has presented the Ballon d'Or to the world's best player since 1956. England's Stanley Matthews was the first winner.

For a chunk of its history, only players from Europe were considered for the award which means the likes of Pele and Diego Maradona ended their respective careers without Ballons d'Or to their names. It wasn't until 2007 that the award went global and took into account the performances of players from all over the world, not just Europe.

There was a brief partnership with FIFA between 2010 and 2015 which saw France Football's Ballon d'Or merge with FIFA's World Player of the Year award, but FIFA went their own way and created The Best in 2016.

Journalists from around the world have, for the most part, been solely responsible for deciding the Ballon d'Or victor, but there was a time between 2007 and 2016 when coaches and national team captains also had a say.

The ceremony was cancelled for the very first time in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and since 2022 the award has been handed out to the best performing player from the previous season as opposed to calendar year.

READ MORE ON THE 2024 BALLON D'OR WINNERS