Ollie Watkins vs Harry Kane - who should start for England going forward?

There was a distinct feeling of unfamiliarity for Harry Kane on Thursday night as he warmed the bench on a brisk Athens evening.

We've seen the Three Lions' record goalscorer cash in no matter the environment. San Marino, Bulgaria, Albania; it doesn't matter. Evidenced by his recent comments, player welfare is an afterthought in the mind of England's insatiable strike. He just wants to play and, more importantly, score goals.

But Kane has encountered a gambling man in Lee Carsley. One, admittedly, he won't be having to deal with for much longer. England's interim boss omitted his captain on Thursday night for a must-win game against Greece, instead opting for Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins.

It was a decision Carsley said Kane was "absolutely fine" with, although the Bayern Munich hitman may well have been gnawing away at his nails and clenching both fists to the point of knuckle disintegration as he watched on while Watkins netted the opener in an impressive 3-0 win.

Greece, as they proved in October, are no pushovers, but we know England can win against opposition of that calibre without their most prolific marksman given the talent at their disposal. Nevertheless, Watkins' performance in Athens begged the question as to whether he should be the man leading the Three Lions' line when Thomas Tuchel takes the reins in 2025.

Here's a comparison of the two strikers, and an assessment of who should start for England moving forward.

Goalscoring

Watkins' goal on Thursday was his fifth for the national team in 18 caps, and it was the sort of goal we've grown accustomed to Kane scoring over the years. The Villa forward smartly positioned himself to tap home with ease from Noni Madueke's cut-back.

Watkins is averaging a goal every 121.2 minutes for the Three Lions, while the country's all-time leading scorer, on average, nets every 115.9 minutes. Kane's record of 68 goals in 102 games is outstanding.

As a pure finisher, there are few better than Kane. He was on course for Alan Shearer's Premier League record before he exited for Bayern Munich, where he scored 36 Bundesliga goals in his debut campaign. Watkins' highest single-season scoring tally of 19 (2023/24) has been topped on seven occasions by Kane.

The Bayern forward is a fearsome ball-striker who's ever so accurate off both feet. He's a genius in the penalty area and one of the very best from 12 yards. In only one of the past eight league seasons has Kane underperformed his expected goals haul (2021/22), per FBref. He's constantly defied the metrics, but the same can't be said about Watkins, who's underperformed his xG in four of seven recorded seasons. His highest over-performance, meanwhile, was +2.2 last season. Kane has bettered that figure seven times.

While Watkins has mastered a particular finish and is superb when striking across the goalkeeper from tight angles, he is not a better goalscorer than Kane.

Hold-up play and creativity

Watkins' 19-goal Premier League season in 2023/24 was made all the more impressive by his contributions as a playmaker. Unai Emery's main man added 13 assists to his handy goal tally - again the biggest single-season haul of his career to date. Only once has Kane bettered that figure. He recorded 14 league assists in 2020/21 when his telepathic relationship with Son Heung-min was at its apex.

Kane is better playing with his back to goal and doubtlessly boasts a superior passing range. He's operated like a seasoned number ten over the past few years, with his clunky tendencies dissipating when he's attempting a swashbuckling sequence which involves switching the play. He appears uncharacteristically elegant at times.

The former Tottenham striker is also a master at winning fouls. So often he's able to offer his team respite by buying a free-kick.

Watkins is ever-improving as a facilitator, with his ability to run the channels and open up space for teammates a major part of his indirect playmaking. The striker assisted in a litany of ways last season, with the variety on show pointing towards Watkins' evolution. He created via crosses, cut-backs, channel-running, and smart lay-offs.

Villa's talisman is a very good hold-up player and is starting to emerge as a creator, but Kane's consistency on these fronts over numerous years means he has to be given the edge.

Longevity

The Tuchel era is pointed towards the 2026 World Cup, and that's ultimately what we're looking towards in the Kane vs Watkins discussion.

By the time the tournament starts on 11 June, Kane will be 32 and turning 33 just after it draws to a close. Age isn't a major concern, with the striker harbouring hopes of enjoying a lengthy career that compares to his NFL hero, Tom Brady. However, given the substantial number of games he has played since breaking through at Tottenham in his early 20s and the physical decline that has manifested at major tournaments, there are concerns over the state of Kane's fitness by the time the 2026 World Cup rolls around.

Kane has generally stayed injury-free in recent years having been dogged by ankle issues while Mauricio Pochettino was in charge at Spurs, but there's no denying that the number of minutes he racks up over the course of a season takes its toll by the time tournament football rolls around. For the very first time, Gareth Southgate was more than willing to hook his leading man in favour of Watkins at Euro 2024. The striker was dealing with a back issue over the summer.

Watkins is three years Kane's junior but will be 30 at the start of the 2026 World Cup. Nowadays, that's no age to be concerned about a physical decline, but you do wonder how effective the Villa man will be at doing what he does best: running in behind. There may have to be some evolution to the striker's game if he's to excel at the highest level throughout his 30s.

For both forwards, load management will be key entering the tournament. There's no reason to believe Kane will massively decline physically throughout the World Cup cycle, but this may well be his last as England's main man.

Who's better suited to Thomas Tuchel?

This is the crucial question. Kane is a better striker than Watkins, but is he a better tactical fit for this England team?

At Euro 2024, for example, Southgate struggled mightily for balance and Kane's desire to drop deep compromised the space available for Jude Bellingham, while the absence of a runner meant the striker had no one to feed whenever he did receive possession on the halfway line.

Watkins can do aspects of what Kane does from a hold-up and creative perspective, and his willingness to stretch the pitch opens up space for England's myriad of playmakers to shine. Given Tuchel's tactical fetish and the balance Watkins would provide will still being able to utilise the likes of Bellingham, Cole Palmer, and Bukayo Saka, the Villa man is undoubtedly a tempting option.

However, the incoming England boss will also know of Kane's danger when supplied with a runner ahead of him. Had Anthony Gordon gotten more of a go at the Euros, Kane's performances surely would've been improved with Southgate's side appearing far more balanced down the left flank.

Tuchel has already worked with Kane at Bayern, and it's fair to say he didn't inhibit him in front of goal. The 31-year-old netted 44 times in all competitions last season on his way to the Gerd Muller Trophy. Kane is looking forward to working with the German again, while Tuchel persistently waxed lyrical over the forward during his time in Bavaria, describing it as a 'privilege' to coach Kane back in January.

This familiarity means Tuchel will surely attempt to make it work with Kane first before potentially turning to Watkins.

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