Opta AI reveals Premier League clubs with hardest fixtures from GW4 to GW7
- Four Premier League matchdays between September and October international breaks
- Fulham have toughest set of fixtures between breaks, per Opta
- Aston Villa and Liverpool to benefit from kinder runs
Breathe a collective sigh of relief, folks, we've all come out of the other side of the first international break of the 2024/25 season.
Your reward? Another one in a month's time.
Forget the dread you'll be overcome with in mid-October for now, though, because there are four whole weeks of Premier League action to enjoy in the meantime. See, it's not all so bad, is it?
Well, for some, the upcoming period could be quite a slog. We all want a serene and simple start to the new season, but schedule-makers are always bound to stiff a few. Tough stretches are inevitable, and Opta, using their Power Rankings, have calculated which Premier League teams have the trickiest runs between the September and October international breaks.
While a couple of managers will be desperate to reach the next set of internationals, others won't want their upcoming stretch to end.
Premier League GW4 to GW7 fixture difficulty table
Given that it's Opta's Power Rankings that are ultimately deciding the difficulty of every Premier League team's upcoming fixtures, let's do a brief explainer. Well, we'll let Opta do the talking. The stats provider assign an 'ability score' to over 13,000 domestic teams on a zero to 100 scale where zero is the worst team in the world and 100 the best.
Ratings are updated daily, with Opta using a Elo-based rating system to calculate the strength of each team based on previous results.
Those with the two hardest sets of upcoming fixtures both have a trip to Manchester City on the horizon, with both Fulham and Brentford having the daunting task. The Bees are still the last Premier League team to win at the Etihad, but that triumph will be two years old in November.
Fulham, who have the toughest run in the division, also host West Ham and Newcastle before visiting Nottingham Forest. Brentford travel to Tottenham after facing City before welcoming West Ham and Wolves to the Gtech Community Stadium.
Spurs, who host the North London Derby and visit Old Trafford, have the hardest run of the so-called 'Big Six', while City face Arsenal at home and Newcastle at St. James' Park before the October break. The Gunners have a mini injury crisis on their hands as they prepare for trips to Tottenham and City, but their run is softened by gimme home games against Leicester and Southampton.
Difficulty rank | Team | Next four fixtures | Opponent average rating* |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Fulham | West Ham (H), Newcastle (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (A) | 89.7 |
2. | Brentford | Man City (A), Tottenham (A), West Ham (H), Wolves (H) | 89.5 |
3. | Wolves | Newcastle (H), Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H). Brentford (A) | 89.5 |
4. | Nottingham Forest | Liverpool (A), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Chelsea (A) | 89.3 |
5. | Tottenham | Arsenal (H), Brentford (H), Man Utd (A), Brighton (A) | 89.1 |
6. | Manchester City | Brentford (H), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A), Fulham (H) | 89.0 |
7. | Newcastle | Wolves (A), Fulham (A), Man City (H), Everton (A) | 88.0 |
8. | Leicester | Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (H) | 87.5 |
9. | Arsenal | Tottenham (A), Man City (A), Leicester (H), Southampton (H) | 87.4 |
10. | Southampton | Man Utd (H), Ipswich (H), Bournemouth (A), Arsenal (A) | 87.3 |
11. | Crystal Palace | Leicester (H), Man Utd (H), Everton (A), Liverpool (H) | 86.8 |
12. | Bournemouth | Chelsea (H), Liverpool (A), Southampton (H), Leicester (A) | 86.3 |
13. | Everton | Aston Villa (A), Leicester (A), Crystal Palace (H), Newcastle (H) | 86.1 |
14. | Manchester United | Southampton (A), Crystal Palace (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A) | 85.7 |
15. | Chelsea | Bournemouth (A), West Ham (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (H) | 85.5 |
16. | Ipswich Town | Brighton (A), Southampton (A), Aston Villa (H), West Ham (A) | 85.4 |
17. | Brighton | Ipswich (H), Nottingham Forest (H), Chelsea (A), Tottenham (H) | 85.4 |
18. | West Ham | Fulham (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A), Ipswich (H) | 85.2 |
19. | Liverpool | Nottingham Forest (H), Bournemouth (H), Wolves (A), Crystal Palace (A) | 84.4 |
20. | Aston Villa | Everton (H), Wolves (H), Ipswich (A), Man Utd (H) | 83.8 |
*(based on Opta's Power Rankings)
Heading down the difficulty table, both Manchester United and Chelsea can ignite their respective seasons with relatively tame runs. Chelsea face none of the big six over the next four weeks, while United host Tottenham and visit Villa Park before the next break.
Ipswich have three away games yet Opta rank their upcoming run as the fourth-easiest in the Premier League. Trips to Brighton and West Ham as well as a home game against Villa hardly scream simple. On the contrary, Aston Villa and Liverpool are poised to coast through the next month, although the start of the Champions League will toughen what look like fairly tame fixtures on paper.
Opta believe these two clubs have the easiest runs before the next international break. Arne Slot's Reds take on Forest and Bournemouth at Anfield before visiting Wolves and Crystal Palace, while Villa welcome Everton, Wolves and United to Villa Park. Unai Emery's side visit Portman Road on Matchday 6.
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