All the Times Pep Guardiola Overthought a Champions League Clash
As Bayern Munich scored their third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth against a putrid Barcelona outfit on Friday night, the question was clear in everyone's minds.
"You reckon City will beat 'em?"
The prospect of a Pep Guardiola x Hansi Flick duel in the Champions League semi-finals doing much more than merely tingling the salivary glands of football purists.
But Pep's genius mind works in mysterious ways, eh?
Despite their obvious rejuvenation under superb coach Rudi Garcia, very few gave Lyon - who finished SEVENTH in Ligue 1, you know, that supposed farmers' league - a shot at toppling the Cityzens in Lisbon on Saturday night after knocking out a not-so imperious Juventus side in the round of 16.
But, sure enough, they did. 3-1. Revisionism regarding Pep's legacy underway.
This was a bad, bad defeat for City and one their Spanish string-puller has to take a fair chunk of responsibility for.
We'll cover why a bit later on, but in the meantime, let's enjoy a few more occasions where Guardiola totally outfoxed himself under the bright lights of the European stage, switching away from his tried and trusty 4-3-3 in favour of a more responsive opposition-focused approach.
1. 'A Total Mess' vs Real Madrid (Semi Final Second Leg, 2014)
Back in Europe's premier competition with Bayern Munich after a year's sabbatical following that Ramires dink and Gary Neville's "OOooOoooOOOooO" in 2012, Guardiola's game plan in a bid to 'thwart' Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid was an absolute horror show.
"I got it wrong man. I got it totally wrong. It’s a monumental f--k up. A total mess. The biggest f--k up of my life as a coach,” he later admitted in Marti Perarnau's 'Pep Confidential'. So yeah, it was pretty abhorrent.
Bayern had impressed in a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Spain before a whole whirlwind of systems went through his mind ahead of the return leg in Munich. The 3-4-3 was considered, so was the 4-2-3-1 before Pep fatefully opted for a 4-2-4.
He had stayed away from the system all season after Jurgen Klopp's Borussia Dortmund tore it apart in a 4-2 victory in the 2013 German Supercup - the Spaniard's first game at the helm in Bavaria - but decided to reintroduce it for the biggest game of the campaign.
It was a disaster, as Ancelotti's Real ran riot. Bayern's high press left a Phillip Lahm-less midfield two (the German stalwart returned to right-back in a questionable move) horribly exposed, allowing the Spaniards to wreak havoc on the counter in an eventual 4-0 romp.
2. Back Three vs Barcelona (Semi Final First Leg, 2015)
A familiar foe this time around, as the club Guardiola won two Champions League titles with made the most of another poor tactical ploy from the Spaniard.
This time he did settle for a three at the back, although this was more of a 3-4-1-2.
Facing up against Barcelona's supreme 'MSN' front three, Guardiola deployed versatile and dependable right-back Rafinha on the left side of the three in a curious bid to show Lionel Messi inside. It was clear Pep was keen on pressing the Catalans high, needing superior numbers upfield in order to do so and thus, wing-backs Juan Bernat and Lahm were tasked with aggressive roles to essentially leave his back three three-on-three with the MSN.
It was all about cutting Barça's attack from source and it was somewhat successful before a swift switch to a 4-1-2-1-2, which didn't pay off. Without Arjen Robben, Bayern suffered from a distinct lack of width; struggling to stretch the pitch, create overloads and switch the play.
Guardiola's change was at odds with his typical ideals, with his side exerting a lot of effort in the opening stages before their radical change in approach led to significantly decreased fluency in possession throughout the contest.
A late Catalan show at the Camp Nou saw Bayern fall to a 3-0 defeat on their way to another semi-final exit.
3. Traditional Wingers vs Atletico Madrid (Semi Final First Leg, 2016)
How did this Bayern team not win the Champions League, eh?
The 2015/16 campaign was certainly their best shot at European glory during Pep's tenure, with Diego Simeone's plucky Atletico representing their 'weakest' but certainly most savvy last four opponents since the Spaniard's 2013 arrival.
While this tactical ploy was by no means a disaster, it certainly led to an inefficient opening 45 minutes in the first leg in Madrid as Saul Niguez's individual brilliance gave El Cholo's side the lead.
With Atleti typically defending extremely narrow, Guardiola sought to exploit the allowed space on the flanks by deploying his wingers on their natural flanks, asking them to dribble down the line and stretch the play.
Thus, Kingsley Coman and Douglas Costa were used on the left and right respectively as Pep ditched the modern approach to wing-play. Although there were hints of magic by the maverick pair, the Spaniard's decision - despite the logic - proved unsuccessful.
Both wingers were often too predictable when they went one on one with their full-backs, before inverted wingers were reintroduced after the restart - Costa switched to the right while left-footed Franck Ribery was brought on in place of Coman.
4. Lopsided 4-2-3-1 vs Liverpool (Quarter Final First Leg, 2018)
Here we go! The beginning of Guardiola's serious conservatism.
Simply put, Pep cacked himself. Weeks removed from a 4-3 defeat to the Reds at Anfield in an enthralling contest, the Spaniard sought to stifle Jurgen Klopp's emerging Liverpool side by deploying Ilkay Gundogan as a right midfielder in what played like a lopsided 4-2-3-1.
The German was tasked with drifting inside to stiffen CIty's midfield and create a box structure which would overload Klopp's midfield three.
However, the system was mightily flawed. The burden on Kyle Walker to provide an outlet down the right was overwhelming, while Kevin De Bruyne was often too deep to have much of a say in the final third. City were heavily reliant on the direct route to Leroy Sane - marshalled expertly by a blossoming Trent Alexander-Arnold - and Walker, while the work of Liverpool's front three counteracted City's numerical superiority in midfield.
With their counter-attacking and gegenpressing prowess, the Reds blew a conservative City side away, as they scored three times in the first half in a 3-0 triumph.
5. Conservative vs Tottenham (Quarter Final First Leg, 2019)
Fearful of Mauricio Pochettino's Spurs ever since they tore his CIty side apart in the Spaniard's first-ever defeat in English football back in 2016, Guardiola's conservatism was laid bare in the quarter final first leg in north London.
This was a Spurs side slowly starting to fade as a ruthless attacking force under their Argentine manager. They were a shadow of their 2016 pomp and certainly inferior to the Liverpool side which dismantled the Cityzens a year prior at this stage.
Nevertheless, Pep drifted away from De Bruyne and his typical use of 'free eights' in favour of - once again - greater midfield steel.
A double pivot of Fernandinho and Gundogan was utilised, much to the detriment of their attacking efficiency. Wary of the Lilywhites' threat in transition, City committed limited numbers forward in attacks of their own as the two holding midfielders were tasked to stick to their position.
They struggled to progress the ball upfield - with Poch's superb man-marking combined with diligent protection of the half-spaces thwarting the visitors - as Son Heung-min's late strike proved the winner in a tense contest.
6. Over-Caution vs Lyon (Quarter Final, 2020)
And here we are, the latest edition of Pep Guardiola overthinking a Champions League tie. Laid bare in all its glory.
After a tactical masterstroke proved Real Madrid's downfall in the round of 16, Guardiola - clearly wary of Lyon's fantastic midfield three of Houssem Aouar, Bruno Guimarães and Maxence Caqueret - deployed three holding midfielders comprising of Fernandinho, Rodri and Gundogan.
In reality, it played more like a 3-4-3, with Guardiola's over-caution oozing through a tepid City side. Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling and De Bruyne were isolated against Rudi Garcia's back five, the double pivot circulated possession drearily, and Lyon's aforementioned midfield triumvirate were all individually immense; spearheading Les Gones' upset victory through defensive diligence, dynamism and the odd spark of innovation.
Sure, Pep did return to the 4-3-3 in the second period and improve significantly as a result (going forward). Yes, Sterling did miss an open goal with the game at 2-1 and, of course, VAR didn't exactly help them out throughout the night either, but why oh why, Pep, were you so bloody conservative?!