Aston Villa continue to prove post-lockdown rejuvenation is no fluke

In the final Premier League game before football across the globe was brought to a screeching halt by the coronavirus outbreak, Leicester City's Harvey Barnes opened the scoring in a 4-0 thumping of Aston Villa by rolling the ball into an unguarded net.

Countless proactive goalkeepers have been forced to leave their goal unattended, yet, Pepe Reina was so far off his line he was outside his area and out of the camera shot when Barnes took aim. Incredibly, this was one of two goals Reina conceded while bumbling beyond the confines of his 18-yard box during a six-month loan at Villa Park.

Going into the enforced break, Villa were conceding two goals a game, comfortably the worst in the division and languishing second from bottom in the league table. Things were bleak.

Yet, fast forward to the end of 2020 - a merciful act for many had it been offered back in March - and Dean Smith's side are in the mix for a Europa League place, with a bevvy of games in hand, come the turn of the year.

In an attempt to shed some light on such a breathtaking turnaround, Villa's rejuvenation - without the need for managerial upheaval - can be crudely split into two stages.

Short-term hole plugging

100 days after Leicester rattled four past Reina, Villa did the unthinkable and kept a clean sheet. Admittedly, this may have been assisted by the first Hawkeye error in more than 9,000 matches (and a different keeper). However, Villa's subsequent performances suggested this shutout was no fluke.

From their final ten Premier League games last season, Villa only let in 11 goals - almost half the rate they were conceding previously - to earn another campaign in the top flight.

After flirting with a variety of formations, Smith settled upon an uncompromising and rarely altered back four, with Douglas Luiz sitting in midfield, to drastically reduce the quantity and quality of chances Villa offered up. According to The Athletic, Smith also showed his squad video footage of how Liverpool and Manchester City’s players defend, fighting and covering for each other when required.

However, in the end, Smith’s side only secured safety on the final day of the season, ultimately pipping Bournemouth to 17th place by a single point.

Villa may have had the sixth-best defence post-lockdown, but only two teams scored fewer goals. To borrow Rafa Benitez's analogy, trying to strike a balance between the two sides of the game is like wrestling with a short blanket - if you cover your head, your feet are cold, if you cover your feet, your head is cold.

So, when faced with the short blanket paradox, Villa took the obvious approach: They bought a bigger blanket.

Reinvest to boost attack

With one of the best transfer windows in the division, Villa improved their team at both ends.

Club record signing Ollie Watkins was the headline move and the 24-year-old has already matched the number of Premier League goals Villa's three strikers last season could muster combined. Watkins also brings frightening industry off the ball. It's no surprise that Villa are one of the few sides in Europe to have actually upped the intensity of their press given no Premier League player has attempted more pressures in the attacking third than Watkins this season, per FBRef.

Between the sticks, Emiliano Martinez tends to be inside his 18-yard box on the rare occasions he does concede, while right-back Matty Cash has rapidly settled and Bertrand Traore is also contributing going forward.

However, Aston Villa's best bit of business was tying their talismanic captain down for another five years. Averaging a goal or assist from open play every 115 minutes, Jack Grealish is in the form of his career. Somehow, the 25-year-old all-round forward has improved in almost every aspect of his game even though teams will be - if they weren’t already - acutely aware of the threat he brings. Though the fact that he is not the sole irritant undoubtedly helps.

Now fully restocked, Villa are averaging two goals per game, compared to 1.1 in 2019/20. They sit third in the league for non-penalty expected goals (via FBRef), and are taking four more shots each match - from better positions - than last term.

Smith has attributed some of Villa’s success this season to the fact that the west Midlands giants have used a Premier League low of 19 players. In fact, Smith was forced into the only change he made for the 1-1 draw against Chelsea despite playing Crystal Palace off the park just two days earlier.

Now, more pressing and less rotation doesn’t exactly scream sustainability. However, Villa aren’t in the midst of any finishing hot streak or at the mercy of miraculous goalkeeping. Smith and his coaching staff haven't relied upon a generous swing of fortune to achieve such a turnaround, but taken it one step at a time.