Borussia Dortmund 2020/21 Season Preview: Strengths, Weaknesses, Key Man & Prediction

Lucien Favre's two seasons as Borussia Dortmund's head coach have, on the surface, been disappointingly similar.

For the second campaign in a row, Dortmund finished as runners-up in the Bundesliga to Bayern Munich, were knocked out of the German Cup in the third round by Werder Bremen and exited the Champions League in the round of 16.

Yet, in 2018/19 Dortmund endured a detrimental drop off in the second half of the season. Whereas last term, BVB came to fore after switching to a 3-4-3 system in late November (not to mention the January addition goalscoring sensation Erling Haaland).

In typical Dortmund style, the Black and Yellows have added two of the most exciting teenage talents in the game - the former Birmingham midfielder Jude Bellingham and Real Madrid loanee Reinier - to a squad already bristling with embryonic excellence.

Favre's side will undoubtedly recreate the fluid, attacking football which made them a must-watch last season. But whether they can actually challenge Bayern for the title is an altogether different question.

Strengths

Attacking Potency & Chance Creation

Dortmund's strength unquestionably lies in their attacking potency. With the likes of Haaland and Jadon Sancho one season closer to their traditional peak years - alongside the emerging Giovanni Reyna and proven Marco Reus - Dortmund remain a serious threat going forward.

Even with Achraf Hakimi's departure to Inter, the pace of this Dortmund side is truly frightening and was on full display in 2019/20 as they netted no fewer than 11 goals on the counter attack (the best in the Bundesliga).

Interestingly, last season Dortmund outperformed their expected goals (xG) to a greater extent than other team in Europe's top five leagues (essentially, they scored more goals than they 'should' have based on the quality of the chances they created).

Often this over-performance eventually levels out over time but deceiving xG models has become something of a habit for Favre. Dortmund also topped this particular statistical category in 2018/19 which suggests BVB are adept at creating chances which are easier to finish than the current models predict.

Weaknesses

Mentality Issues & Their Goalkeeper

Favre's mid-season switch to a 3-4-3 formation - anchored by the impressive Mats Hummels - resolved many of Dortmund's defensive frailties. After the tactical tweak, the side conceded fewer goals and shots from open play.

However, the quality of the chances they do concede is concerning and goalkeeper Roman Bürki didn't exactly cover himself in glory when the opposition did break through.

The Swiss shot stopper had a middling campaign overall but Bayern's Thomas Müller did highlight the fact that he 'doesn't have the longest arms' after Joshua Kimmich chipped Bürki in May's Klassiker. Off the field, the rather less tangible quality of self-belief and 'bottle' is one which has so often been questioned of almost any Dortmund side since Jürgen Klopp's departure in 2015.

Key Man

While midfielder Axel Witsel offers a rare source of positional discipline and defensive solidity in the centre of the park, it's all but impossible to overlook the impact of Sancho. The England international finished the season with the frankly ridiculous tallies of 17 goals and 16 assists from 25 Bundesliga starts.

Sancho looks increasingly likely to remain in Germany for the upcoming campaign - despite Manchester United's best efforts - and has only improved his standing both in and outside the club for his professionalism amidst the incessant transfer rumours.

Prediction

The loss of Hakimi is sizeable but a combination of the experienced Thomas Meunier and promising Mateu Morey should offer a decent - if inferior - replacement. However, other than the Morocco international, Dortmund have done well simply to hold on to their throng of talent.

BVB ultimately finished 13 points adrift of Hansi Flick's relentless Bayern Munich and even if this season's squad is an improvement on the previous iteration, it's unlikely to be enough to overcome the Bavarian behemoths - who have hardly stood still themselves.

A third consecutive runners-up finish would be painful but progression beyond the Champions League round of 16 for the first time in three years is an attainable goal.

Prediction: Bundesliga Runners-Up & Champions League Quarter-Finalists