Have Patience - the Goals Are Coming for Chris Hughton's Nottingham Forest
By Toby Bowles
Four games, three defeats, and a fresh wave of frustration. Nottingham Forest, you've done it again.
After two consecutive victories going into the international break against Wycombe Wanderers and Coventry City, it's been a case of groundhog day for the Reds - one step forward, and, with steadfast inevitability, two steps back.
The 2-0 win over Wycombe had many convinced that things were falling into place for Chris Hughton at the City Ground, but by the end of Sunday's tepid 1-0 loss to Swansea City - the third game in a row in which Forest had lost and failed to score - that optimism had receded almost entirely.
Not every week do you play three of the division's in-form sides, and not every week do you play two of those games (against Bournemouth and Barnsley) away from home, but coming away with nothing didn't seem to tally with the usual dogged qualities that you would associate with a Hughton side, even if the performances, on the whole, weren't all that bad.
Forest created chances, principally against Barnsley and Bournemouth, that they should have taken. But in a side replete with proven Championship quality, that conviction was absent - at both ends of the pitch. And there's only one factor you can put it down to: confidence.
In a team hovering just above the relegation zone, it is never going to be sky-high. Anthony Knockaert looks a shadow of the player he once was at Brighton & Hove Albion. Luke Freeman is playing exactly like someone who spent a year on the sidelines at Sheffield United. And Joe Lolley, with those chronic muscle pains of his, can't even trust his own body.
It has been bleak. Even on Wednesday, as Forest ended the losing streak with a hard-fought draw against Watford, that vacuum of confidence was apparent. Joe Worrall's return brought some much-needed stability to the defence, but going forward, cutting edge continued to elude Hughton's men.
This theme has been a persistent one. Creating chances and getting into good positions hasn't been an issue. But utilising them effectively very much has.
When it comes to expected goals (xG - the likelihood of a team scoring based on the volume and quality of chances they create), Forest rank sixth in the division, with an average xG per game of 1.36 according to FootyStats. Now that might not necessarily suit the eye test but note that the rate at which they take shots is also the sixth highest, with a figure of 12.7 per game outstripping four of the top seven in Swansea, Watford, Reading and Bristol City.
Ok, that number may have been skewed somewhat by 40 shots on goal in two outlying home games, and yes, the midfield does seem devoid of creativity at times, but the statistic that glues it all together is this: a conversion rate of just 3.2%.
That is the second-worst record in the division, and while the natural instinct is to blame the starting striker, Lyle Taylor, the reality is far removed. Taylor has made full use of his limited service so far this season, with Lewis Grabban, Knockaert, and Miguel Angel Guerrero playing far greater roles in Forest's profligacy. And heck, defensive midfielder Ryan Yates isn't blameless after all those missed headers.
Forest can, however, draw encouragement from one of expected goals' key tenets: that data evens out over time.
Take Reading, for example. Seven wins from eight saw the Royals race clear at the summit of the Championship, before an inevitable drop-off left them five games without a win. The likes of Lucas Joao, Yakou Meite and George Puscas had all been scoring at wildly unsustainable rates, and having regressed to the mean, Veljko Paunović's men now lie in fourth. It's not unthinkable that the opposite could happen to Forest.
After all, there is proven quality in this team. Knockaert, Lolley, and Freeman have all enjoyed stellar seasons at Championship level. It's about unlocking that potential, and perhaps a win would do just that.
The value of confidence can often be understated in football, as can the effect positive results have on it.
Maybe, once the goals start to flow, they won't stop.