How Burnley earned Championship promotion

Burnley announced Vincent Kompany's arrival with three words: "A new era."

Ten months on, with promotion back to the Premier League secured at a record-breaking pace, it looks like a prescient declaration. Yet, Burnley's chairman Alan Pace described the club's rapid return to the top flight as a "complete surprise" after Burnley clinched a top-two finish against Middlesbrough.

Here's how Kompany set about establishing a new era which the club's social media admin believed in before the chairman.

Calm heads

After a decade at the club, Sean Dyche’s influence at Burnley hasn’t entirely been erased a year on from his departure. The gravel-gargling boss repeatedly espoused the need for his players to have “fire in the belly” but keep their “head in the freezer”.

This anti-reactionary sentiment has been critical during the few bumps in what has largely been a smooth ride under Kompany.

After opening the Championship season with a 1-0 win against Huddersfield, Burnley failed to win their next four matches. The former Manchester City captain didn’t claim his first three points at Turf Moor until the seventh game of the season.

Yet, there was scarcely a whisper of discontent as minor teething problems were to be expected of a side under a new permanent manager for the first time in a decade.

The real test of faith came in November, when Burnley found themselves on the end of a second-half whipping away to Sheffield United, tumbling to a 5-2 loss at Bramall Lane. After a 16-game unbeaten sequence, Burnley retained top spot despite the loss which Kompany quickly framed as a positive.

“Maybe we needed this defeat,” the manager mused. “Burnley is a humble club, but as we’ve done well for a sustained period of time we have to make sure we don’t get carried away and losses bring that home.” Lessons were certainly learned as the Bramall Lane battering remains the club's most recent league loss.

Summer turnover

Burnley were not only integrating a new manager but a glut of new players. Seven were allowed to have their contracts expire while another six were moved on last summer.

Of the 16 players Burnley signed on a mix of loan and permanent deals, only three were aged over 23. Kompany’s little black book must have been dogeared by the end of the window as Burnley; half of the summer recruits either came from Manchester City, Kompany’s former haunt, or the Belgian top flight, where the 36-year-old had just spent two years managing Anderlecht.

The most veteran player to arrive at Turf Moor over the summer was then-26-year-old Josh Cullen. Kompany signed the West Ham academy graduate in 2020, during his first window in charge of Anderlecht. The organising midfielder became a staple of the side during his second season and has played more Championship minutes than any other Burnley outfielder this term.

Style transformation under Kompany

Kompany kept the training ground sign “Legs, Hearts, Minds” from Dyche’s reign but dramatically altered the on-pitch principles.

The painfully direct long-ball side which didn't care for possession has morphed into a patient outfit which cherishes the ball. Only Swansea can match Burnley across a myriad of on-ball stats in this season's Championship but the fact that Kompany even has the Clarets vying with the Swans - a team that has been espousing variations of a similar style for years - in these categories is remarkable.

Stats via Opta, correct as of 8 April 2023.

Off the ball, Burnley’s style has also changed. Dyche’s side were often shoehorned into the trope of a team that exclusively sat in two deep banks of four. While Burnley’s compactness was one of their great strengths, the Clarets also timed the moments to put pressure on the ball high up the pitch well when at their best.

Kompany’s iteration of Burnley is more indiscriminate with when they close down the opposition. Burnley allow their opponents an average of just ten passes before applying a defensive action, be that a tackle, interception, foul, etc. This proxy for pressing intensity (opposition passes per defensive action, PPDA) ranks Burnley as the most aggressive side off the ball in the Championship this season.

Last term, the Clarets were affording Premier League opponents an average of 14 passes before sticking a boot in.

Turf Moor a fortress once again

This season hasn’t entirely been about change. Kompany and co have also restored some long-held truths which had faded in recent years.

Burnley won just five of their final 29 Premier League matches at Turf Moor, including an eight-month winless streak between February and October 2021.

However, the Clarets are unbeaten at Jordan North’s ‘happy place’ across all competitions this season, collecting an unrivalled 48 points from 20 league games at Turf Moor which can once again be justifiably classified as a fortress.

Clinical finishing

Napoleon Bonaparte is repeatedly credited with favouring lucky generals over an otherwise competent candidate.

It would be unfair to write off Burnley’s triumph as a stroke of good fortune but a bit of luck in front of goal has undoubtedly helped.

Earlier this season, Nathan Tella admitted: “I’ve never really been much of a goalscorer.” The Southampton loanee had scored one league goal in his senior career before arriving at Turf Moor in the summer but leads the team with 17 goals.

However, based on the quality of chances Tella has been presented with, an average finisher would be expected to most often score just ten goals - seven fewer than his actual tally. This is the most extreme example of a squad littered with players outperforming their expected goals.

Burnley, overall, have scored around 19 goals more than Opta’s statistical model (via FBref) would have predicted, comfortably the highest differential in the division. Six teams have taken more shots than the Clarets but Burnley - who boast a club-record 19 different scorers - are the division’s most prolific side.

It seems that Kompany is a lucky and competent general.