Supercomputer predicts Chelsea's Premier League finish
The decision to sack Thomas Tuchel, the man who guided Chelsea to their second Champions League triumph, was the boldest decision Todd Boehly could've made when he succeeded Roman Abramovich as owner.
Boehly's long-term outlook saw Graham Potter replace the German as manager, but following initial promise, the Blues' form has taken a plunge. Several key injuries have certainly played a role, but Potter too has to take some responsibility for Chelsea's recent indifference.
This is not a side that is yet capable of competing for the highest honours, even if the €120m purchase of Enzo Fernandez is made in January.
The Blues are currently languishing in mid-table, and the data experts at FiveThirtyEight don't expect things to get much rosier for the west Londoners by the end of the season.
Chelsea's 2022/23 season so far
Tuchel was sacked at the start of September following a sluggish start to the season in both the Premier League and Champions League. Potter was quickly taken off Brighton's hands, and the venerated English boss facilitated an upsurge in form.
Chelsea began Potter's reign with a nine-game unbeaten run in all competitions before Brighton brought their former manager's honeymoon period to an abrupt halt with a 4-1 victory over the Blues at the end of October.
Injuries then started to take their toll on the west London outfit with Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell, Reece James, and N'Golo Kante all making their way to the sidelines. Chelsea's lack of depth in key areas was subsequently exposed and Potter has since failed to stumble upon a settled starting XI or a preferred system.
The Blues lost their final three league games before the World Cup, but they did recover in Europe to qualify for the Champions League knockout stages as group winners. The lengthy break offered Potter some much-needed respite, but several players remain sidelined and James re-joined the injury list in the 2-0 victory over Bournemouth just after Christmas.
Chelsea's drab 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest leaves them tenth in the table and ten points off Manchester United in fourth.
Where does the supercomputer predict Chelsea will finish?
Chelsea should get healthier during the second half of the season, but those at FiveThirtyEight don't believe Potter will oversee a big enough resurgence to climb into the top four.
The Blues have currently accumulated 25 points through 16 games and the data experts, who use their Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict each round of matches, project them to finish eighth with 60 points.
That means they're predicting the Blues to claim 35 points from their remaining 22 Premier League games - an average of 1.59 points a game. Potter's side are predicted to finish a point behind Brighton and eight points adrift of fourth-placed Liverpool.
To make matters worse, Arsenal are the projected champions.