Supercomputer predicts final Premier League table as Arsenal & Man City pick up wins
The Premier League title race threatened to provide a twist on Saturday but leaders Arsenal and champions Manchester City came through the day's action unscathed.
The Citizens were pegged back early on by Liverpool but roared back to beat the Reds 4-1 before the Gunners dismissed Leeds by the same scoreline.
It's set to be a much more exciting run-in at the top of the table than we've been treated to in recent years, but will it be Mikel Arteta or Pep Guardiola posing with the Premier League title come May?
- Manchester City 4-1 Liverpool - Premier League: Player ratings
- Arsenal 4-1 Leeds - Premier League: Player ratings
Final predicted 2022/23 Premier League table
The folks at FiveThirtyEight use its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) to project the outcome of leagues throughout the world. It's updated after every game and, following their victory over Leeds, it's good news for Arsenal fans.
While they may be put through the wringer, Gunners supporters still have the statistics in their favour, with a projected final points total of 88.
That would be enough to seal a first Premier League title since 2003/04, as City are only predicted to earn 87 points, despite wracking up a superior goal difference of 61 to Arsenal's 49.
Champions League hopefuls Manchester United, Newcastle and Tottenham are yet to play this weekend but the former pair are expected to nail down third and fourth respectively to play in Europe's elite club competition next season.
Liverpool's defeat to Man City did them no favours in that UCL hunt but they're expected to finish just three points off Newcastle in fourth.
Position | Team | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Arsenal | 49 | 88 |
2. | Manchester City | 61 | 87 |
3. | Manchester United | 13 | 71 |
4. | Newcastle | 24 | 66 |
5. | Tottenham | 14 | 64 |
6. | Liverpool | 24 | 63 |
7. | Brighton | 20 | 62 |
8. | Brentford | 7 | 56 |
9. | Chelsea | 2 | 54 |
10. | Aston Villa | -5 | 52 |
11. | Fulham | -5 | 50 |
12. | Crystal Palace | -14 | 43 |
13. | West Ham | -13 | 39 |
14. | Leeds | -15 | 38 |
15. | Leicester | -12 | 38 |
16. | Wolves | -24 | 37 |
17. | Bournemouth | -34 | 37 |
18. | Everton | -24 | 36 |
19. | Nottingham Forest | -37 | 34 |
20. | Southampton | -30 | 33 |
Down towards the bottom, Palace's late victory over Leicester has done them the world of good. Things are projected to work out for the returning Roy Hodgson, with a finish of 12th on the cards.
Leeds, Leicester and Wolves also have the stats in their favour and are expected to finish comfortably enough above the bottom three, but the first relegation spot may be filled by a Premier League stalwart.
Everton are in all kinds of strife on and off the pitch and Sean Dyche hasn't been backed by the analytics here to turn things around. The Toffees are predicted to drop into the Championship, having been in the top flight since 1954/55.
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Nottingham Forest's poor away form may end up costing them, too. Steve Cooper's side have shown plenty of fight at the City Ground but haven't maximised their points haul and their chaotic return to the Premier League may end after only one season.
Southampton are the apparent no-hopers in 20th. The Saints have been a top flight outfit since 2012/13 and provided a number of entertaining teams under the likes of Mauricio Pochettino and Ronald Koeman, but they're not as entertaining or efficient these days and a relegation seems more probable than just possible now.