Supercomputer predicts Premier League title race after Man City gain on Arsenal
Arsenal played out a sensational 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday afternoon, dropping points for just the seventh time in 30 Premier League outings.
Manchester City's 4-1 thumping of Southampton on Saturday ramped up the pressure on Mikel Arteta's side, who headed into Sunday's duel without a win on Liverpool's home patch in 11 years. Nevertheless, the young Gunners showed no signs of tension as they opened the contest playing with the swagger and verve which has defined their season thus far.
Arsenal raced into a 2-0 lead, but by the end of the contest they were fortunate to walk away with a point. Aaron Ramsdale's two stunning saves in stoppage time ensured the visitors preserved a point after goals from Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino drew the hosts level.
A point at Anfield is far from disastrous for the Premier League leaders, but the gap between themselves and perennial champions City is starting to close ahead of their 26 April duel. Indeed, many now consider the latter to be favourites.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings system to predict the outcome of every fixture throughout the Premier League season, and things make for interesting reading after the weekend action.
Projected 2022/23 Premier League champions
Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | Man City | 67 | 88 |
2. | Arsenal | 73 | 87 |
The supercomputer has long backed the Gunners to claim their first Premier League title in almost 20 years, but the weekend's results has finally seen the pendulum swing in Man City's favour.
City remain six points adrift of Arsenal, but the title is in their hands given that they've played a game less, host the Gunners at the Etihad, and boast a superior goal difference. Pep Guardiola's side have rediscovered their imperious groove at a pivotal point in the season, and it's hard to envisage them dropping too many more points between now and the end of the campaign's close.
The computer is projecting a mightily tight race which will almost certainly go down to the final day. They're predicting City to claim 21 points from their final nine games, and Arsenal to get 14 from eight.
The Gunners do have a tough run down the stretch. Outside of their trip to City, they take on Newcastle at St. James' Park, host an impressive Brighton side, and travel to Nottingham Forest on the penultimate matchday of the season. The City Ground has proven to be a tricky place to go and win for visiting teams, including City, this term.
Final predicted 2022/23 Premier League table
Elsewhere, Newcastle are expected to pip Manchester United to third place on goal difference, securing a place in the Champions League.
Tottenham and Brighton make up the top six, with both set to secure a Europa League berth as long as Sheffield United don't win the FA Cup, while Liverpool will at this stage be enjoying the comfort of the Europa Conference League.
At the bottom, Leicester's back-to-back defeats to Aston Villa and Bournemouth is projected to send them into the Championship, alongside Nottingham Forest and Southampton who both lost at the weekend.
Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
3. | Newcastle | 56 | 72 |
4. | Man Utd | 56 | 71 |
5. | Tottenham | 53 | 65 |
6. | Brighton | 46 | 62 |
7. | Liverpool | 43 | 62 |
8. | Aston Villa | 47 | 57 |
9. | Brentford | 43 | 54 |
10. | Chelsea | 39 | 51 |
11. | Fulham | 39 | 49 |
12. | Crystal Palace | 33 | 45 |
13. | West Ham | 30 | 40 |
14. | Wolves | 31 | 39 |
15. | Bournemouth | 30 | 38 |
16. | Leeds | 29 | 37 |
17. | Everton | 27 | 35 |
18. | Leicester | 25 | 34 |
19. | Nottingham Forest | 27 | 33 |
20. | Southampton | 23 | 31 |
Premier League fixtures, table & top scorers
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