Supercomputer predicts title race as Arsenal win and Man City lose again

Gameweek 16 certainly felt like a significant slate of fixtures in the context of the 2023/24 Premier League season.

Arsenal delivered another telling reminder of their prospects away at division minnows Luton Town, coming from behind as Declan Rice struck in the 96th minute to earn the Gunners their sixth consecutive win in all competitions.

Liverpool were also victorious against promoted opposition as they comfortably saw off Sheffield United 2-0, but the crisis at Manchester City deepened even further as they dropped points in a fourth consecutive game with defeat at an impressive Aston Villa.

There are still plenty of twists and turns left in the 2023/24 Premier League season, but here's how statisticians Opta see the rest of the campaign playing out.

Final 2023/24 Premier League table predicted by Opta

Man City's grip on the Premier League title, which they have won in the previous three seasons, seems to be loosening somewhat, with draws against Chelsea and Liverpool being followed by a deserved defeat to Aston Villa.

While Pep Guardiola may be scratching his head over how to fix his side's faltering form, the treble winners are still expected to finish first in England's top flight with a probability of 53.9%. That exceeds both Arsenal and Liverpool, who have chances of 22.9% and 20.7% respectively.

Liverpool have a higher chance of coming second, however, following their latest victory over Sheffield United. Jurgen Klopp's latest Reds rebuild has gone well so far and they have previously been Man City's biggest challengers at the top of the table, but whether they will be more of a title threat than Mikel Arteta's outfit remains to be seen.

The quality of the top three means it may be a tight battle for fourth spot, but it's Aston Villa who are fancied by the statisticians at present. Unai Emery's Villans have won their last 14 home games in the Premier League, equalling a club record and sending a serious warning sign to the rest of the division's supposed 'top six'.

Newcastle's injury issues have not helped their progress this season but they still have a greater chance of a top four finish than Tottenham, whose own fitness issues saw Ange Postecoglou's team slump to three defeats on the bounce. Manchester United's own inconsistency means they aren't heavily fancied to finish any higher than seventh, having come third last term.

More mid-table obscurity has been predicted for Mauricio Pochettino's Chelsea, who have impressed against top Premier League sides while struggling against those around them in the table.

The relegation battle down towards the bottom of the division is heating up. However, it's the three promoted teams who are expected to return straight back to the Championship.

Sheff Utd have been dealt a bleak assessment of their survival credentials despite hometown hero Chris Wilder's return, with the Blades expected to finish rock bottom with a probability of 58.6%. Burnley look similarly doomed but did at least record their second league win of the season when they drove the final nail into Paul Heckingbottom's managerial coffin with a 5-0 thrashing.

Luton have looked more competent than some of their rivals but are still favoured more heavily for the third relegation spot as opposed to Everton, who have won five league games and are only currently in the bottom three due to their ten-point deduction.

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