Supercomputer predicts who will reach Champions League semi-finals
It's the most wonderful time of the year for football lovers.
The trials and tribulations of the final stretch means every domestic encounter bears significance at both ends of the table, while the conclusion of the Champions League always brings about high quality football and melodrama.
We've arrived at the quarter-final stage of this season's iteration of Europe's premier club competition, and the draw was one appreciated by the vast majority given its weighted nature. As a result, either Napoli, Milan, Inter or Benfica will be competing for glory in Istanbul. Heritage.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Champions League campaign. Here's who they think will progress into the semi-finals and beyond following the quarter- and semi-final draw.
Projected 2022/23 Champions League semi-finalists
Team | Chance of reaching semi-finals (%) | Chance of reaching the final (%) | Chance of winning final (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
Napoli | 67 | 38 | 14 |
Real Madrid | 66 | 24 | 14 |
Man City | 61 | 44 | 32 |
Benfica | 56 | 29 | 10 |
Inter | 44 | 20 | 6 |
Bayern Munich | 39 | 25 | 16 |
Chelsea | 34 | 8 | 4 |
Milan | 33 | 13 | 3 |
Champions League quarter-final fixtures
- Benfica vs Inter
- Man City vs Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid vs Chelsea
- AC Milan vs Napoli
Real Madrid are predicted to topple Chelsea, who sacked Graham Potter after the 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa in the Premier League, despite beating the Blues just once in their previous seven meetings.
But even if Carlo Ancelotti's side do progress to the last four, their chances of winning the competition for a record-extending 15th time stand at just 14%.
That's largely because Manchester City are still heavily favoured to win the competition, even though Thomas Tuchel has been instiled as Bayern Munich's new boss. City have a 61% chance of ousting the German giants in the last eight, a 44% chance of reaching the final and a 32% chance of ending their wait for a maiden Champions League crown.
Interesting, Napoli are given the highest chance of reaching the semi-finals despite being whooped by their quarter-final opponents AC Milan in their recent Serie A meeting. The Rossoneri ran out thumping 4-0 winners, although Napoli were without leading goalscorer Victor Osimhen, who is also expected to miss the first leg.
Luciano Spalletti's side have a 67% chance of getting past Milan and a 38% chance of doing that and beating either Benfica or Inter - with the edge just given to the Portuguese side in their last eight encounter.
Porto's chances of progressing over two legs stand at 56%, with Inter's form dipping at just the wrong time. They've lost their last three in Serie A, and four of their last five.
Predicted Champions League semi-final fixtures
- Real Madrid vs Man City
- Napoli vs Benfica
Predicted Champions League final
- Man City vs Napoli
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