The reasons for & against every remaining Playoff team reaching MLS Cup

The Conference finals are upon us with the MLS Cup Playoffs field whittled all the way down to just four teams.

The Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake, NYCFC, and Philadelphia Union have all battled hard to reach this point. Each has paid a price to get this far that could come back to haunt them, but you cannot deny the quality of any of the four remaining teams in their own right.

So, here are the reasons why each team will and will not make MLS Cup:

Western Conference

Portland Timbers

Why they will make MLS Cup:

The Timbers suffered a couple of huge losses in their Western Conference semi-final against the Colorado Rapids, which we'll get to in a moment. But they remain favorites, largely because they have the most depth and experience left in the field.

Diego Chara has been there and done it all with Portland, and remains one of the strongest defensive midfielders in MLS despite now being 35 years old. Diego Valeri is the same age and although his legs have slowed much more, you still like the idea of throwing him in for 20 minutes to wreak havoc.

Giovanni Savarese also has the pick of Felipe Mora or Jaroslaw Niezgoda through the middle, while Yimmi Chara improved considerably during the second half of the season.

Each of the above are players with considerable minutes, miles, and trophies under their belts and most MLS clubs would likely kill to have them on their own rosters.

Why they won't make MLS Cup:

Now to address the big elephant in the room: Sebastian Blanco and Dairon Asprilla are both out.

With a combined 19 goals and nine primary assists, the duo have pretty much been Portland's best players this season. Blanco scored twice as the Timbers cruised past Minnesota United 3-1 in Round One and while Asprilla didn't score or assist in that game, he ended it with four successful dribbles and two chances created. He was a terror for the Loons backline.

But Blanco limped out of the Western Conference semi-final with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, while Asprilla got himself stupidly sent off at the end for a needless confrontation with Braian Galvan.

With so much firepower on the sidelines, the Timbers might have to rely more on a defensive game plan to see them through. Portland have arguably been at their best over the years soaking up pressure and hitting teams on the break. But this season, they've been a little leakier, and having no Asprilla or Blanco will certainly slow their transitions down.

Can they be reliable enough defensively to get the job done? They managed it against Colorado, but it's by no means a closed book.

Real Salt Lake

Why they will make MLS Cup:

Keeping it plain and simple, Real Salt Lake have a complete disregard for the opposition. They've gone to Seattle and won on penalties without attempting a single shot through 120 minutes. Then they went to Sporting Kansas City and largely outplayed Peter Vermes' side - though they left it late, their 2-1 win at Children's Mercy Park was anything but a steal. Flexibility is crucial in knockout situations.

RSL have a genuine difference-maker in Damir Kreilach, an extremely effective super-sub in Anderson Julio (just ask SKC), and a supreme master of the dark arts in David Ochoa.

You can't even put home advantage in Portland's favor given all of RSL's recent success has been on the road.

Real Salt Lake are the agents of chaos.

Why they won't make MLS Cup:

Piece for piece, Portland have better players than RSL, most would admit that. Even with Blanco and Asprilla out of action. But so did Seattle and SKC, so you can't really look too much into that.

If there's one thing that could derail Salt Lake, it's pushing their luck a little too much.

It's hard to imagine them going to Providence Park and keeping a clean sheet if they bunker in as deep as they did against Seattle. With the likes of Valeri and Yimmi Chara around, you're asking for trouble. Equally, Aaron Herrera's wild swipe to give away the penalty against SKC shows how easily a defensive gameplan can fall apart through one ill-judged moment.

And then there are the mind games. It's not just Ochoa, most of this RSL side are well-versed in getting under the opposition's skin. But Valeri and Diego Chara alone are among the most experienced players in MLS. They'll take some extra baiting and might even flip the script and assume the villain roles themselves. If that happens, it'll be utter chaos, but if it happens on the Timbers' terms, it'll be curtains for RSL.

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia Union

Why they will make MLS Cup:

If there's one thing the Union have done brilliantly in these Playoffs, it's grind.

Their Round One tie was decided with a glorious final kick of the game by Jakob Glesnes. The Eastern Conference semi-final clash against Nashville saw them battle from behind, impose themselves on the game, then ultimately win a penalty shootout 2-0.

That's certainly an unconventional route to this stage, but one that's really let us see what this team is made of.

Then, of course, there's the small matter of home advantage, given particular importance thanks to the fantastic atmosphere the Union faithful has generated at Subaru Park recently.

Why they won't make MLS Cup:

This one is plain and simple: the Philadelphia Union are terrible in front of goal.

Jim Curtin's men have generated over 2xG in both their Playoff games so far, but have scored just once in each. And one of those was that late effort from Glesnes from long range - with an xG value of 0.03.

Kacper Przybyłko and Sergio Santos have attempted a combined 10 shots in the Playoffs so far, nine of which were inside the box. None of them have found the net, some of them really, really should.

So far, the Union have managed to get by on screamers and PKs. That'll only take you so far.

New York City FC

Why they will make MLS Cup:

For many - including this writer - NYCFC are the most talented team left in the Playoff pool.

Even without suspended Golden Boot winner Taty Castellanos, the Pigeons boast a wealth of attacking riches. Maxi Moralez has enjoyed an improved 2021, once again proving himself one of the best creators in MLS. Jesus Medina has finally started cashing in on that long-held talent.

But beyond the headliners, there are so many more threatening pieces in Ronny Deila's attack. Ismael Tajouri-Shradi has seven goals this season. Santiago Rodriguez opened the scoring in the last round against the Revs. Talles Magno is a serious prospect and, given time, could become the bane of many MLS defenses. And are we all forgetting Heber is an option from the bench? Unfit, sure, but put the ball at his feet inside the box and you'd back him to get it done.

Even if they don't play well, there's nothing stopping NYCFC brute-forcing their way to a win on Sunday thanks to sheer talent.

Why they won't make MLS Cup:

Absences. That's it. That's all that will stop NYCFC.

Without Anton Tinnerholm, Teyvon Gray has been fantastic. Without Keaton Parks, James Sands doubled his efforts in midfield. With the latter sidelined now as well, you'd still back Alfredo Morales to hold down the fort. Even with Castellanos suspended, Deila still has enough options to find goals.

But the collective weight of all those injuries and suspensions? That's a lot to deal with, enough to destroy the collective rhythm of even the very best teams.

Deila has coped well so far, but the absences are piling up and will surely prove costly eventually.