What seventh in the Premier League means for European qualification
When people are asked to randomly select a whole number between one and ten, seven is the most common choice.
There are many logical explanations as to why seven is instinctively assumed to be the most random - one and ten have been named, humans associate even numbers with order, five is exactly in the middle, etc. - but perhaps there is an unexplainable cosmic pull towards that specific digit.
Several teams are experiencing that natural drift towards seven in the Premier League this season. With the days of Charlton Athletic fans apathetically accepting that finish long gone, here are the rewards that await the side that ends the campaign in the most popular slot.
What seventh in the Premier League means for European qualification
All things being equal, finishing seventh in the Premier League is no guarantee for European qualification. A number of dominoes have to fall before the club sandwiched between sixth and eighth can book any continental flights.
As there is no danger of a rogue Premier League team winning the Champions League or Europa League while finishing outside the division's top five this year, normal qualification protocols apply for the league's leading quintet. The top four qualify for the Champions League and fifth place secures Europa League football next season.
Manchester United face Manchester City in the FA Cup final at Wembley on Saturday 3 June. Winning England's oldest cup earns entry into the Europa League but as both clubs are already assured of finishing in the top five, the honour of qualification for UEFA's second-tier competition will be snagged by the team that finishes sixth.
Carabao Cup winners qualify for the final play-off stage of the tragically-named Europa Conference League. That gong was snapped up by Manchester United with an underwhelming 2-0 win over Newcastle back in February.
Therefore, the spot in Europe's third-tier club competition is passed down to the next highest-placed team that has not already qualified for continental football, i.e. the lucky team that finishes seventh.
Which Premier League teams can finish in seventh place?
Position | Team | Games | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Man City (C) | 36 | 62 | 88 |
2 | Arsenal | 37 | 40 | 81 |
3 | Newcastle | 37 | 35 | 70 |
4 | Man Utd | 36 | 11 | 69 |
5 | Liverpool | 37 | 28 | 66 |
6 | Brighton | 36 | 20 | 61 |
7 | Aston Villa | 37 | 4 | 58 |
8 | Tottenham | 37 | 4 | 57 |
9 | Brentford | 37 | 11 | 56 |
Correct as of 23 May
Heading into the final week of the 2022/23 Premier League season, four clubs can still technically finish seventh.
After a lopsided 1-1 draw with Liverpool, Aston Villa will start the last Sunday of the campaign in that slot. Unai Emery inherited a club with the exact same record as Southampton in November but the Spaniard's remarkable impact - recognised with a nomination for the Premier League Manager of the Season award - has taken Villa to the cusp of European football for the first time since 2010.
Villa face fellow continental challengers Brighton on the final day of the season. Roberto De Zerbi's upstarts could finish as high as fifth but also face the slim possibility of slipping from sixth to seventh. The Seagulls could guarantee Europa League football before they face Villa with one point against freshly-crowned champions Manchester City on Wednesday night.
Yet, even if Brighton lose to City and Villa, Emery's side with need a 16-goal swing to overtake the Seagulls on goal difference. De Zerbi signed off his team's 3-1 win over Southampton last weekend with the rallying cry: "We want to play in the Europa League, not the Conference."
Tottenham appear to be doing everything in their power to avoid a return to the Conference League. In the inaugural season of the competition, Spurs slumped to a group-stage exit with a 2-1 loss to Slovenian side NS Mura. Tottenham didn't even complete their full allocation of matches, forfeiting their final game against Rennes amid COVID-19 chaos.
Spurs suffered their fifth defeat in seven games with a second-half implosion against Brentford on Saturday. Thomas Frank's "little bus stop in Hounslow" may need to make the 20-minute drive to Heathrow next year.
With that 3-1 win over Tottenham, Brentford can feasibly rise from ninth all the way up to seventh if Spurs and Villa fail to defeat Leeds United and Brighton respectively. While it is eminently possible for those results to go their way, Brentford still have to win their last game - which is just the small matter of hosting Manchester City.
On this week's edition of Talking Transfers, part of the 90min podcast network, Scott Saunders is joined by Toby Cudworth and Graeme Bailey to discuss all the latest transfer news. On the agenda: Tottenham's pursuit of Feyenoord manager Arne Slot, Bayern Munich's interest in Declan Rice, Joshua Kimmich, Neymar & more!
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