When can PSG win Ligue 1? Remaining fixtures and prediction
By Euan Burns
Even considering the usual off-field circus that follows Paris Saint-Germain around every season, the second half of this Ligue 1 campaign has been one for the ages.
Having won Ligue 1 eight times in the past ten seasons, you would be right for assuming PSG have got the league wrapped up already. That is not the case, though, and it is down to a range of different reasons.
Off the pitch, there has been drama involving the likes of Lionel Messi, Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Presnel Kimpembe, Achraf Hakimi and coach Christophe Galtier. On it, Galtier has been unable to get the best out of his incredibly talented group of players, with the squad looking very lopsided.
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How does the Ligue 1 table look?
With four games left to play, PSG have a six-point lead over second-placed Lens. They are certainly in a position of strength and it would take quite a collapse for them not to retain their crown.
There are three teams who are in with a mathematical chance of winning Ligue 1 this season. Alongside PSG, Lens and Marseille, who are six and eight points off the top, can still come out in first place.
Pos | Team | Games Played | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PSG | 34 | 44 | 78 |
2 | Lens | 34 | 31 | 72 |
3 | Marseille | 34 | 28 | 70 |
Given PSG's superior goal difference in comparison to Lens, the league can actually be won as early as this weekend. If PSG win, Lens lose and Marseille fail to win, PSG would have a nine-point lead with three games to play.
While it would not be mathematically sealed, it would require a huge goal swing for Les Parisiens to not win the league.
PSG's remaining Ligue 1 fixtures
The other thing on PSG's side when it comes to securing the title is they only have games against teams in the bottom half of Ligue 1 left to play.
- 13/05/2023 - PSG vs Ajaccio
- 21/05/2023 - Auxerre vs PSG
- 27/05/2023 - Strasbourg vs PSG
- 03/06/2023 - PSG vs Clermont Foot
Lens' remaining Ligue 1 fixtures
Lens have also got a fairly simple-looking fixture list to navigate although they do have a couple of top-half teams to take on. They will feel all 12 points can be secured, though.
- 12/05/2023 - Lens vs Reims
- 21/05/2023 - Lorient vs Lens
- 27/05/2023 - Lens vs Ajaccio
- 03/06/2023 - Auxerre vs Lens
Marseille's remaining Ligue 1 fixtures
Marseille were recently beaten by Lens which put an end to any realistic chance of them winning Ligue 1, but if they win their remaining games then they are in the hunt. Third place in Ligue 1 has to go through a Champions League qualifying round, so there is a big incentive to try and finish second.
- 14/05/2023 - Marseille vs Angers
- 20/05/2023 - Lille vs Marseille
- 27/05/2023 - Marseille vs Brest
- 03/06/2023 - Ajaccio vs Marseille
What issues have PSG had this season?
The main aim for Paris Saint-Germain when any new season starts is to win the Champions League, something they have never managed previously. As well as that, the coach must ensure they win Ligue 1 by a comfortable margin, ideally winning the domestic cup along the way too.
In 2022/23, PSG were dumped out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich in the round of 16 and also exited the Coupe de France at the same stage, being beaten by Marseille.
Off the pitch, there has been a series of dramas to distract players from doing their jobs on it. There have been fallings out between the fans and key players such as Presnel Kimpembe early in the season, and Neymar later on. Around 100 fans recently gathered outside Neymar's house to demand he leave the club.
That came as part of a demonstration by fans outside the club headquarters where they demanded board resignations and the departure of Lionel Messi. The Argentine had travelled to Saudi Arabia when he was not permitted to and missed a training session.
He was suspended and fined by PSG but that ban was lifted after Messi offered an apology in the form of an Instagram video.
One PSG supporter told French TV breakfast news: “There have been a whole load of things which left people thinking we can’t stand it any more. The sport is inexistent.”
Another said: “We’ve got players who don’t fight for our colours, or respect the club.”
Galtier is currently being investigated for racist remarks from his time as the head coach of OGC Nice. It is alleged Galtier said he "could not have so many blacks and Muslims" in his Nice team. His lawyer says Galtier contests the accusations "with the greatest firmness".
The other off-field issue is that Achraf Hakimi was accused of rape earlier in 2023, but the club have continued using him in games.
Will PSG win Ligue 1?
Given the points gap PSG currently have over Lens, Lionel Messi's return and the simple-looking fixture list, it would be silly to predict that PSG are not going to defend their crown.
What is clear is fans are extremely exasperated with the current direction and nature of the club and there could be a summer of change to come, regardless of whether they win the league or not.
Lens are in very strong form and could well win the rest of their games too, but it is likely that by Matchday 36 or 37, PSG have the league wrapped up.