Will Lionel Messi leave Barcelona in 2021?

The future of out-of-contract Lionel Messi looks set to be one of the dominant narratives of the upcoming transfer window.

Barcelona are understandably desperate for their captain to stay in Catalonia, but the wounds from the saga of a year ago are still felt by the 33-year-old, who is yet to commit to the club he has served for more than 20 years.

A change of presidency has made it more likely he will hang around for another season or two, and recent reports from the continent claim he has set out a list of assurances he wants from Barça before he signs on the dotted line.

It's a positive development for the club's prospects of holding onto their long-serving talisman, but if the club fail to meet his demands and expectations between now and June, we could still see the unthinkable image of Messi pulling on another club's colours.

What are Messi's salary demands?

It's unclear exactly how much Messi wants from Barcelona to commit his future to the club, and reports on his current salary vary wildly. While Goal have him earning £500,000 per week, other outlets estimate his salary at more than £1m weekly...though the high end of that scale likely takes conditional bonuses into consideration.

In any case, Messi is Barcelona's highest earner - and the highest earner in Spain - by a considerable distance. And that would have to continue if he were to hang around, even if he agreed to a substantial salary cut.

The demands he has set out to Barça, though, don't centre around his wages. Eurosport claim that the captain is prioritising on-field success over his own potential earnings, and will only stay at the club if they commit to building a competitive squad that can help him get his hands on a few more trophies before he hangs up his boots.

He also wants to see the club place more focus on developing their own players through La Masia...but more on that shortly.

How are Barcelona's finances?

However bad you think Barcelona's finances are, multiply that by the amount of goals Messi has scored for them (663 and counting) and you're still not even close.

They're a mess. They were struggling even before the pandemic, but the financial numbers posted in January showed the club 'on the verge of bankruptcy', in the words of El Mundo. They have debts well in excess of €1bn, and lost around €100m in 2020 alone.

Undeniably, their meteoric wage bill is a huge part of that problem. For a sustainable football club, wages should come in at around 30% of income; Barça's sits at a very unsustainable 74%.

Maybe just as well Messi isn't chasing the money.

How could Laporta convince Messi to stay?

If Messi is to stay at Barcelona, new president Laporta will have to convince him they are well placed to succeed in the short-term and sustain it for years to come. The captain wants the club to do away with the kind of erratic transfers that have seen them rack up the largest wage bill in all of club football, and focus on a combination of sensible recruitment and developing their own talent.

Eric Garcia's impending arrival seems like a small step in that direction; where Messi sees the potential signings of Georginio Wijnaldum and Memphis Depay remains to be seen.

It has also been reported that Laporta is keen to bring Sergio Aguero to the club on a free transfer. They feel that could go some way towards appeasing Messi, given the close friendship he has with his Argentina team-mate.

In terms of wages or length of contract, it's not clear what Barça have offered Messi just yet. But it's likely he will have to commit to a less lucrative deal than he could earn elsewhere, given how desperate their finances are.

Will Messi join Man City?

A little less than a year ago, it was heavily (albeit briefly) reported that Messi could be on his way to Manchester to reunite with Pep Guardiola. That obviously didn't come to pass: then-president Josep Maria Bartomeu blocked his transfer request and Messi begrudgingly got his head down and started scoring goals for fun again.

Now he is available for pre-contract negotiations, though, the same rumours have resurfaced, with some corners of the internet tipping City to lure him away for free.

But reports in Spain have quickly binned off those suggestions. With Aguero's departure, it's believed City have shifted their focus, and now want a new out-and-out No.9 who can lead the club for the next decade,

That leads us onto our final point...

Could Erling Haaland replace him?

If Messi was to walk out on Barcelona, it's likely they would turn to Erling Haaland to replace him. But one is not conditional on the other; the club have already held talks with the Norwegian's agent Mino Raiola about a potential summer transfer, and could move to sign him either way.

It's unclear how they plan to fund that, given that Dortmund are chasing €150m for him, and he would immediately command one of the highest non-Messi salaries in the squad. It could be that a potential Messi departure would make it a little more likely, given the financial space it would free up.

The flip-side of that is that signing Haaland would show exactly the kind of ambition Messi wants to see from the club before he makes a decision on his future...so who knows?

City also want Haaland as a replacement for Aguero though, and Raiola has also held talks with Real Madrid, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd this week. Stiff competition there.