Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Europa League winner as Man Utd & Tottenham advance

  • Only eight teams left in the Europa League
  • Man Utd and Tottenham are on opposite sides of the draw
  • Neither Premier League team is considered favourites
There could be a new Europa League trophy winner this season
There could be a new Europa League trophy winner this season / Anadolu/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

Despite reach the inaugural final of UEFA's secondary club competition, which was then imaginatively known as the UEFA Cup, there was a sense of disappointment hanging over the Tottenham Hotspur squad.

As Spurs forward Martin Chivers recalled: "Our wives were promised an all-expenses-paid away trip to the final if we ever reached it. So they started dreaming of Madrid, Paris and Rome; and where did we finish? They weren't enamoured to go to Wolverhampton, no."

The 2024/25 Europa League final could once again be an all English affair, with Tottenham joined in the quarter-finals by Manchester United, but the showpiece fixture will be held at Bilbao's San Mames. While the families of those Premier League sides will no doubt be keen on a trip to the Basque Country in May, neither Tottenham nor United are favourites to lift the trophy.


Supercomputer predicts Europa League winner after last 16

Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes is spearheading Manchester United's title tilt / Carl Recine/GettyImages

Athletic Club won't have to travel far for the final held at their home stadium, but there is no sense of disappointment in that. If anything, reaching the culmination of the continental competition has developed into a mild obsession for the Basque giants.

The much sought-after Nico Williams underscored the widespread acclaim he has received in recent years with a blistering brace against Roma in the round of 16. Athletic were insatiable in a 3-1 victory which prompted Opta to rank them as the favourite to win the entire competition.

Rangers have the daunting task of going up against Williams and co in the quarter-finals. Barry Ferguson's side managed to knock out a Fenerbahce outfit led by Jose Mourinho - who took defeat in typically magnanimous style. The increasingly spiky one took a break from pointing out the grand refereeing plot conspiring against him to stress Athletic's superiority against the Gers. "Bilbao is a stronger team and the final is in Bilbao," Mourinho huffed. "So I think, if Rangers do it against Bilbao, it will be phenomenal." Opta tend to agree, rating Rangers' chances of winning the competition at a tournament-low 2.2%.

The winner of the tie between Athletic and Rangers will face with Manchester United or Lyon. Ruben Amorim has already insisted that United have "bigger things" to think about than winning the Europa League which won't save their season because "nothing can". His Red Devils are ranked as just fourth-favourites to lift the trophy, narrowly above their French quarter-final opponents.


2024/25 Europa League knockout draw

Round

Fixture (first leg list)

Quarter-final

Bodo/Glimt vs Lazio

Quarter-final

Tottenham vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Quarter-final

Rangers vs Athletic Club

Quarter-final

Lyon vs Man Utd

Semi-final

Tottenham/Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bodo/Glimt/Lazio

Semi-final

Rangers/Athletic Club vs Lyon/Man Utd


On the other side of the draw, Serie A's Lazio have a strong chance (21.5%) of winning the club's first continental title since beating Manchester United in the 1999 UEFA Super Cup. Marco Baroni's side boasted the best record in the league phase and managed to find a way past Viktoria Plzen despite ending the first leg with nine players.

The capital club face freshly crowned Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt in the quarter-finals. Despite currently being in the midst of their domestic off-season, the side from within the Arctic Circle overcame defending Conference League champions Olympiacos in the last 16.

Eintracht Frankfurt lost their best player during the winter window - Manchester City's £59m bid for Omar Marmoush proved too much to turn down - and have endured a wretched run in the Bundesliga despite two impressive victories over Ajax in the first Europa League knockout round. These factors have undoubtedly contributed to their diminished title chances (7.8%) compared to upcoming opponents Tottenham Hotspur (18.4%).

Spurs, in sharp contrast to Frankfurt, are welcoming back their best players. Micky van de Ven made just his second start of the calendar year against AZ Alkmaar in the last 16, inspiring an accomplished start to the tie. Tottenham were 2-0 up when the Dutch centre-back came off and watched on as the team's defensive resolve crumbled in his absence. Spurs forced their way through, but Van de Ven's involvement will be key to the club's long wait for a piece of silverware.


Rank - Team

Likelihood of winning the Europa League

1 - Athletic Club

22.4%

2 - Lazio

21.5%

3 - Tottenham

18.4%

4 - Man Utd

13.3%

5 - Lyon

10.9%

6 - Eintracht Frankfurt

7.8%

7 - Bodo/Glimt

3.4%

8 - Rangers

2.2%


READ THE LATEST EUROPA LEAGUE NEWS, PREVIEWS & RATINGS HERE

feed