Supercomputer predicts 2024/25 Champions League winner after dramatic last 16

  • Liverpool were surprisingly knocked out of the last 16 by PSG
  • There are eight sides left, including Arsenal and Aston Villa
  • Defending champions Real Madrid are just fifth favourites
The Champions League trophy is up for grabs
The Champions League trophy is up for grabs / Insidefoto/GettyImages
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"Maybe we ran out of luck," Arne Slot fretted after his Liverpool side were dumped out of the Champions League last 16 by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.

The odds had certainly been in Liverpool's favour before that unexpected penalty shootout exit. After strolling to the summit of the inaugural league phase table, Opta's supercomputer wasn't the only outlet making the Reds favourites to win the entire competition.

Yet, whether it was a case of misfortune or missed chances, Liverpool will not be lining up for the quarter-finals. But which of the eight sides that will feature in April's highly anticipated knockout clashes go on to lift the big-eared trophy?


Supercomputer predicts Champions League 2024/25 winner

Raphinha, Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal (left) and Raphinha are spearheading Barcelona's title charge / David Ramos/GettyImages

PSG may have finished below Milan and PSV Eindhoven in the league phase table, but their newfound status as Liverpool's conquerors has swollen their chances of winning the club's first-ever Champions League title. Luis Enrique's free-flowing French giants are second favourites according to Opta, narrowly ranking behind the Spanish coach's former employers, Barcelona.

The Catalan giants breezed past Benfica in the round of 16 and are on what is widely seen to be the easier half of the draw. Before going up against one of Bayern Munich or Inter, Hansi Flick's side are preparing for a quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund. The Bundesliga strugglers - they've won as many league games as they've lost this term - are rank outsiders to go one step better than last season, when they were beaten in the final by Real Madrid, boasting just a 1% chance of continental glory.

Aston Villa don't fare much better in Opta's 10,000 simulations of the competition's remaining matches. Unai Emery's side supposedly boast just a 2.8% chance of winning the whole thing. They will have to get past this in-form iteration of PSG in the quarters, a daunting prospect which Emery sheepishly described as a "huge, huge challenge" against his former club.

Arsenal and Real Madrid also find themselves on the tough side of the draw. Surprisingly, the Gunners theoretically have a better chance of winning their first European Cup than the 15-time champions. Mikel Arteta's side, who may be able to welcome Bukayo Saka back for at least the second leg, are given the edge in a highly anticipated quarter-final tie against Real.

Write Madrid off at your peril. The defending European champions forced their way through a tense and controversial last-16 tie against Atletico Madrid by calling upon all of their grit. As Jude Bellingham beamed: "We're very good at that, at finding a way."

Inter are also deemed to be more likely winners of Europe's grandest prize than Real Madrid. The Serie A title holders go up against fellow continental giants Bayern Munich in the next round with a slight advantage.

Yet, Madrid can never be overlooked. When it was put to Atletico's Diego Simeone that this version of his arch-rivals were relatively poor, the Argentine coach shot back: "I think you're being very harsh on an incredible team: Mbappe, Vinicius, Bellingham, Brahim, Valverde, Rodrygo. We have competed against the best team in the world, for sure."

They will have the chance to prove that status once again in the coming months.


Rank - Team

Probability of winning the Champions League

1 - Barcelona

20.4%

2 - PSG

19.3%

3 - Arsenal

16.8%

4 - Inter

16.4%

5 - Real Madrid

13.6%

6 - Bayern Munich

9.7%

7 - Aston Villa

2.8%

8 - Borussia Dortmund

1%


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