Supercomputer predicts final Champions League table after Man City & Real Madrid drop points

Real Madrid president Florentino Perez didn't hold back in his review of the new Champions League format earlier this month.

The outspoken executive labelled it "unfair", "absurd" and sniffed: "Nobody understands it." Perez will have to become more accustomed with the intricacies of the new table after the Spanish giants slipped further down the standings with a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Wednesday.

Madrid are not the only super club in danger of exiting this new iteration of the competition in its inaugural season. With just three league phase matches remaining, here's the latest predictions from Opta's supercomputer.

Top eight

It doesn't take sophisticated analysis of betting odds and 10,000 simulations of a complex model to figure out that Liverpool are the favourites to top the new-fangled Champions League table. Arne Slot's faultless Reds are the only team in the competition to boast five wins from five games and have a hulking 62.6% chance of remaining in first place by the end of January.

Arsenal are the only other Premier League club predicted to finish in the top eight, which guarantees automatic qualification to the round of 16. The north London outfit bolstered their chances by thrashing Sporting CP 5-1 in Lisbon. Despite the departure of Ruben Amorim to Manchester United, the Portuguese champions are also expected to sneak into the leading octet.

High-flying Inter and Barcelona are vying with Liverpool for top spot, while Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta are predicted to retain their current position in the top eight. Bayern Munich have swung from one extreme to the other in this season's campaign, setting new records for hefty victories and damaging defeats, but should wind up in the round of 16.

Knockout play-offs

Manchester City started the season as one of the favourites to finish top of the inaugural league phase table, yet are currently scrambling around in 17th. Pep Guardiola's out-of-sorts Premier League champions boast the same number of points after five matches (eight) as perennial European strugglers Celtic.

Both British clubs should make it through to the two-legged knockout play-offs, where they will compete for a spot in the round of 16. Aston Villa are also on course to make it through the league phase in their first-ever Champions League campaign and could be joined by the over-performing French trio of Lille, Brest and Monaco.

Carlo Ancelotti was not overly concerned by Real Madrid's disappointing defeat to Liverpool on Wednesday. "We will qualify to the next round and we will compete as every year," the Italian boldly declared. "You will see." Opta's number-crunching broadly supports Ancelotti's confidence, but there is still a 6.7% chance that the record 15-time champions miss out on the knockout stages.

Relegated teams

Paris Saint-Germain finally brought an end to their "bling-bling era", yet there is a 41.9% chance that this new-look, youth-enthused iteration could crash and burn even earlier than its star-studded counterparts. Luis Enrique's inefficient outfit have collected just four points from their five league phase matches.

The French champions defeated Girona on Matchday 1 courtesy of a fortuitous 90th-minute own goal but have since been beaten by Arsenal, Atletico Madrid and, on Tuesday, Bayern Munich. PSG still have Manchester City to play, but need to take maximum points from away trips to fellow strugglers RB Salzburg and an always tricky Stuttgart.

RB Leipzig have been even more disappointing than PSG. The Bundesliga side have lost all five matches and are almost guaranteed (96.7%) to finish in the bottom 12. Marco Rose's jumbled squad are one of ten teams with at least a 90% chance of exiting the competition at the earliest juncture.

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