Supercomputer predicts Man Utd's chances of being relegated

"It is a really difficult moment, one of the more difficult moments in the history of Manchester United and we have to address it with honesty," Ruben Amorim commented after the Red Devils slumped to a fourth-straight defeat in all competitions.

The opening 30 minutes of Man Utd's 2-0 loss to Newcastle to close out a miserable 2024 were as chastening as we've seen at Old Trafford in the 11-and-a-half-year post-Fergie mess.

A 64-year-old midfield pivot huffed and puffed as the Magpies' majestic pivot relentlessly combined past the sluggish veterans to facilitate an early battering.

Stability ensued once Kobbie Mainoo entered the fray, but United's fate was sealed once Amorim had picked his team.

The new head coach's task was seismic upon arrival, but very few would've had a relegation scrap on their bingo card in 2024/25. Within two months of taking the job, Amorim has said it's "really clear" that United are in a dogfight.

After Ipswich Town secured their first home win of the season against Chelsea, United now have just a seven-point buffer on the drop zone. They're a woeful outfit seemingly not improving under one of the continent's hottest coaching properties, but the Red Devils surely aren't poised for their first relegation since 1974, are they?

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What are Man Utd's chances of getting relegated from the Premier League?

Despite their slump and bleak short-term outlook, Opta suggests the real chance of United actually going down to the Championship this season are slim.

In the latest 10,000 simulations conducted by their supercomputer, the Red Devils were relegated on just 15 occasions (0.15%).

They've amassed 22 points at the halfway point in the 2024/25 campaign and on course for 44 points at their current rate, but that trajectory comes down slightly when you assess their record under Amorim. United are collecting 0.88 points-per-game with the Portuguese coach at the helm which would see them finish the season with 39 points.

Either haul would comfortably be United's worst in Premier League history. 59 points in 2021/22 was their poorest performance entering 2024/25.

According to the official Premier League website, teams typically avoid relegation if they hit 36 points but there have been six instances in a 38-game season of clubs falling into the second tier having accumulated 39 or more points. The last time that happened was Blackpool in 2010/11. Teams have dropped down off the back of much poorer Premier League seasons in more recent times. Last season, for example, 18th-place Luton Town notched a measly 26 points.

Relegation may be highly unlikely, but the fact we're even having this discussion midway through the season is a damning indictment of United's worsening decline. Opta projects Amorim's side to finish in a lowly 12th when it's all said and done, but a busy January could swallow the project whole.

Southampton visit Old Trafford on 16 January, aiming to thrust United into a state of utter despair.

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